RSS

Tag Archives: DP Dr. William Ruto

The GOOD, the BAD, and the UGLY of KENYA KWANZA MANIFESTO



I have finished reading the Kenya Kwanza Manifesto. The document is wordy and poorly edited so it takes a lot of patience to go through it.

As far as the content and the details are concerned I will begin with the good. The document makes a good attempt at understanding the issues at hand and does so using statistics. It also avoids making lofty promises which requires huge financing. While it makes an attempt at financing its promises, the estimated funding is based on guesswork. It is also unclear how the funds will be raised.

As far as the bad is concerned;
1. Overall the document is still very qualitative. While it mostly quantifies the challenges it fails in quantifying the solutions. Sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, water, energy, aviation, ICT have zero quantification when it comes to solutions and financing. One would have expected to get clarity on the much hyped Bottom Up economics but the document offers nothing

2. The manifesto does not identify corruption and looting of public funds as a challenge facing the country. It is silent on how this issue will be tackled. The people behind KK are known to be incredibly corrupt. It is no wonder that they make no attempt at tackling corruption. A KK government will certainly continue the current looting menace. At least that is the message I get from the document

3. The document identifies the issue of public debt but fails to offer even a single solution on how it will be dealt with. While it commits to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of the GDP by 2026/27 financial year, no clear detailed are provided on how to go about it. Anybody who promises you any economic progress without clarity on debt stabilisation is simply lying

4. On the agriculture sector the proposed solutions are underwhelming. It fails to appreciate the fact that rain-fed agriculture is no longer sustainable. To make matters worse a KK government will no longer invest in large scale water projects such as dams. Shift will focus to community water projects. Large projects will be done under PPP model. This would amount to privatisation of water which ought to be a non-negotiable public good. The promise to commit KShs 50 Billion annually to the sector is good but there are no details on how such funds will be deployed. The proposed Minimum Guaranteed Returns is utopian and there are no details on how it will be achieved without making the cost of food expensive

5. The much hyped KShs 50 Billion per year Hustler’s Fund is also not detailed. It is unclear how the cash will disbursed

6. The proposal to increase housing supply by 250,000 annually is overly ambitious and vague. Even at a cost of KShs 3 million per house, this would amount to KShs 750 Billion annually. There is no possibility of raising such funds either privately or publicly. The government needs to invest in public housing for renting at affordable rates. Saying that funding for this will come from pension funds doesn’t make sense because the government cannot direct them on how to allocate funds

7. KK promises to hire 116,000 teachers in two years. No cost has been provided. The average pay per teacher in Kenya is KShs 741,823 per year. KK will need at least KShs 86 Billion to achieve this goal. The Alliance promises nothing in reducing the cost of education in the country. There is nothing even about the HELB loan reliefs something they have been promising in political rallies. They don’t mention CBC despite promising to scrap or reform it in rallies. They only talk about reforming the exam based system

8. On ICT they promise to lay 100,000 km of fibre optic cable. They forget that over 95% of broadband internet in Kenya is accessed via the mobile phone. They don’t even mention the word 5G. A promise is made to lower the cost of data and calls but nothing specific is mentioned especially with regard to the heavy taxation on these items

9. There is nothing revolutionary in the document about the healthcare sector. The proposal to raise KShs 200 Billion annually for universal healthcare lacks clarity because it is unclear how the informally employed will pay up. Besides, if all the funds in NHIF, MoH and County government health budgets were combined we could easily setup an organisation to run all public hospitals and offer free healthcare to all

10. The document says nothing about the extractive sector in the country. Nothing is said about the oil and gas sector or the mining sector. This sector carries the potential to double or even triple our GDP. How it can be omitted in a manifesto beggars belief

11. Regarding the energy sector, the document fails to make any tangible promise on how to lower the cost of power or by how much. The only positive thing here is the promise towards fast-tracking the electrification of our transportation system as a way of dealing with high petrol prices. Their proposal to set up infrastructure for Liquefied Natural Gas for power generation makes no sense since we have enough geothermal power generation capacity. No mention is made of the exploitative IPPs or the huge system losses which have made power unaffordable

12. While the document deeply reflects on the potential of our tourism sector, it falls far short in proposing how this vast potential will be harnessed. No funding commitments are made especially towards marketing

13. The document also does not mention anything about parastatal reforms or how the privatisation initiative will be accelerated. This is a critical cog in generating government revenues in view of diminishing taxation capacity. It should have been addressed in details

14. Not a word has been spared for our capital markets. Capital market reforms are needed to provide a cheaper way of financing enterprises and enhance wealth distribution

The ugly thing about the KK manifesto is mainly about the people behind it. These people have no known history of running public affairs with integrity. They have perfected the culture of lying to the public such that it is impossible to believe any promise they make.

The 2022 election makes for a hard choice. None of the two major political formations understands the burning economic issues of the day. None has a clue on how to stabilise the public debt and revive the economy. Stabilising the debt and reviving the economy are more important than any promise any politician can make. We are in a deep economic crisis. Nothing much will happen unless this is tackled deliberately and decisively.

© Ephraim Njega

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on July 3, 2022 in Politics

 

Tags: , , , ,

Here is why activist Boniface Mwangi believes Raila Odinga will make a good President

Raila is no saint but he is going to make a good president because he deeply cares about Kenya and Kenyans. He has made mistakes but he is also a man who has paid a heavy price for fighting for Kenyans. He was arrested in 1982 and spent six years in jail, while there his mother died but he was not informed until two months later. He was released in February 1988 and only to be arrested in September 1988. He spent 9 years in jail for fighting not for his stomach but for a better Kenya. He has undergone physical, emotional and psychological torture. He has won elections, but instead of a smooth transfer of power, his supporters have been murdered.

A man whose father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was a selfless freedom fighter, whose family has suffered immensely is compared to a thief who has never worked anywhere in his entire life. The only payslip William Ruto has ever seen is his salary as a member of parliament and now as Deputy President but Ruto is a billionaire. It’s an open secret how he got his looted billions. When Raila Odinga and Martha Karua were getting beaten and harassed by the Moi dictatorship, Ruto and Rigathi were working for that regime.

The 2022 elections should be a walk in the park for the people’s president Raila Odinga. Finally, those who have been stealing his elections and killing his supporters are going home, but it has become complicated. Raila Odinga who is known as a forgiving man, shook hands with President Uhuru Kenyatta, a handshake that he did to stop the killings of his supporters, and for his region to get development. Raila forgave Moi for jailing him without trial for 9 years, forgave Kibaki for stealing his victory, and forgave President Uhuru Kenyatta for demonizing him, killing his supporters and stealing elections.

That forgiveness, the one the bible preaches, which Raila Odinga as a good Christain followed is been used to blame him for President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy Ruto’s failure. Raila has never been Kenya’s President, and in the past 10 years, this country has been run by the two brothers Uhuru and Ruto. There is no place Raila Odinga has handled Kenya’s budget or borrowed money from anyone. He was the one screaming money is been stolen and we ignored him.

Today, Deputy President Ruto, who has been charged with all manner of crimes in the past, and has been part of the grand looting government is angry that Raila Odinga forgave Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila forgave his political rival Uhuru and they became friends, but Raila Odinga didn’t take over the government. Just because you’re a friend of the president doesn’t make you president. President Uhuru Kenyatta in his happiness for being forgiven by Raila Odinga has decided to endorse Raila for president. That’s his democratic right to do so.

President Uhuru is supporting Raila Odinga for many reasons, some of which he knows Raila Odinga will not seek revenge, and he will treat him as an elderly statesman, Uhuru regrets travelling across the country calling Raila Odinga names. That campaign of demonizing Raila needs to be undone. If Uhuru Kenyatta cares about Raila Odinga, he needs to do a public apology for all the things he said about him, and that will help Raila in Central Kenya. People remember what Uhuru said about Raila and he needs to say it was just politics and he went overboard. President Uhuru should also do a video telling Kenyans why he believes Ruto shouldn’t succeed him as president. He knows everything Ruto has stolen, he knows Ruto and Rigathi will loot Kenya dry and he should say that categorically. Kenyans need to know he isn’t betraying his promise of Ruto succeeding him, he just doesn’t want thieves to succeed him.

Finally, President Uhuru should step down as Azimio’s chair. He should let Kenyans know that he is going home. His association with Raila Odinga and Martha Karua, two very strong, credible and clean candidates are hurting them. Let Raila and Martha run their campaign, he can support them without occupying a position in the coalition or saying anything. That support is making some people think, wrongly so, that Uhuru will be in the next government.

Finally, why did l type this on social media instead of whispering to Raila Odinga and Martha Karua? I have 2.5 million followers across my social media platforms and I want my personal thoughts as the People’s Watchman to be public. l want the supporters of Azimio to defend our presidential candidate Raila Odinga from the association of 10 years of bad governance by the Jubilee government. Raila Odinga and Martha Karua haven’t occupied an elected position since 2013. It’s unfair, hateful and bad politics to associate them as individuals as part of the Jubilee regime. For the past 10 years, Kenya gave Uhuru and Ruto that mandate. Electing Deputy President Ruto will be a continuation of the Jubille government but electing Raila and Martha will give Kenya a new beginning. A chance to fight tribalism, heal and fight corruption collectively. Deputy President Ruto has been working for the government since 2013, if he hasn’t created any jobs for us, what jobs will create now? Don’t be deceived. Ruto’s cases of looting are in the public domain. Also, let your vote count, apart from ensuring you don’t vote for thieves at the presidency level, any candidate who has a criminal case pending in court doesn’t matter if they have been cleared by their party leaders and Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shouldn’t be elected. The difference between Raila and Martha, and the other side is the fight between light and darkness. Light cannot overpower darkness so please let’s shine this light of love, and change the UDA supporters’ minds. Once Azimio’s manifesto is launched, read, understand and sell it. This country will be changed by us, we must campaign for our Presidential candidate 100%. Send the wheelbarrow merchants of lies home.

I’m also waiting for Raila and Martha to give their supporters a pay bill we support their campaigns. The campaign officially started yesterday and the Azimio campaign will be funded by the people, because the people’s president will finally be elected on 9th August 2022. These views are my own. I speak for myself as a voter and supporter of Azimio. Since l have opened my heart on this matter, I will leave it to rest and focus on campaigning for President Raila Odinga and his Deputy Martha Karua. I hope we can engage with this post without insults but with facts.

© Boniface Mwangi

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on May 31, 2022 in Politics

 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

The ‘Bottom Up Economic’ Model being touted by DP William Ruto and Kenya Kwanza team as Saviour to Kenya’s Economic problem makes no clear Economic Sense; here is why


Here is why DP William Ruto and Kenya Kwanza team have completely Misunderstood the ‘BOTTOM UP ECONOMICS’ model


It is interesting that UDA can’t clearly explain their bottom up economic model. These guys understanding of the economy is poor and dangerous.

Kenya has a very huge informal sector. Almost 90% of the economy is informal. This is a big problem. The informal sector creates many but low quality jobs. It operates beneath the regulatory radar which makes it hard to be taxed. It also makes planning hard since the government lacks data about these enterprises. Its survival orientation impedes upward mobility.

The focus of any government in Kenya should be to increase the share of the formal economy. It should be about moving from survivalpreneurship to growth oriented enterprises. A UDA government would increase the informal sector. This doesn’t make economic sense.

Most people in the informal sector are there out of necessity rather than choice. Many would be happy to get a job paying even a salary of KShs 15,000 per month.

UDA seems to understand bottom up economics as a zero sum game in which the informal sector is to be promoted at the expense of the formal sector. This is dangerous thinking. The informal sector maybe 90% of the economy but it probably generates less than 10% of tax revenues.

Furthermore, the informal sector only survives because of support from the formal economy. For instance, a teacher employed formally by the government consumes bodaboda and Mama Mboga services.

If you focus on promoting the informal sector there will be saturation and enterprise cannibalism. The informal sector operates under the principles of perfect competition. If for example you finance a million more people to buy motorcycles you will reach a point where no one will be making any significant profit. The bodabodas will take home less than KShs 200 daily if lucky.

Bottom up economics as espoused by UDA amounts to glorifying poverty. It is all about controlling the masses by making them poor and dependent on the political class. If it is implemented as understood it would definitely destroy the economy.

True bottom up economics seeks to increase and stabilize the incomes of the people at the bottom of the food chain by creating quality jobs. This is done by formalising the economy. The bottom up UDA is promoting is a utopian fallacy. It might make political sense but certainly makes no economic sense.

© Ephraim Njega

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on May 30, 2022 in General News, Politics

 

Tags: , , , , , ,

 
%d bloggers like this: